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Wednesday, July 14, 2010

All Share Price Index - History peformances & Way forward

We have obtained the Movement of All Share Price Index for the Past 18 months commencing from 01/01/2009 in order to have a closer look about its behavior & to get a closer idea of its future direction. Here we have used 30 day,90 day, & 180 moving averages against the movement of ASI for the past 18 months period.

In January 2009 All Share Price Index was at 1533.79

End of the trading session as at 09/07/2010 (Friday) All Share Price Index was at 4505.69. A growth of 2971.90 points (193.76%) for the period. These performance helps Colombo Stock Exchange to be No 01 position in terms of growth in Asia for year 2009, & to retain the No 02 position in the World in 2009. Colombo Stock Exchange is among one of the best performing stock markets in Asia so far for year 2010 as well.

During this period ASI touched the 30 day moving average in six times ( A,B,C,D, & E points) & fell down to 90 day moving average only in a single time (C) during the period of month of November 2009.

A - Reported during the period between 07/07/2009 to 17/07/2009. ASI was at 2376.22 & 2370.55 levels. The bearish trend lasts only for 10 days.(approx)

GROWTH - 140.26 points

B - During the period between 11/08/2009 to 24/08/2009. ASI was at 2510.81 & 2522.92 The bearish trend lasts only for 14 days.(approx)

GROWTH - 559.99 points

C - Reported during the period between 19/10/2009 to 30/11/2009. ASI fluctuated between 3082.91 - 2913.39 levels. The bearish trend lasts for 41 days (approx) & this is the longest period that the market was at a downward trend after the Bull run commenced in May 2009.

GROWTH - 911.91 points

D - Reported during the period between 01/03/2010 to 05/04/2010. ASI was at 3825.30 & 3781.90 levels.In this scenario bearish trend continues for 34 days (approx).

GROWTH - 453.79 points

E - Reported between 21/05/2010 & 31/05/2010.At that time ASI was fluctuating between 4235.69 points & 4237.16 points. The bearish trend continues for 13 days (approx).

   GROWTH - 311.49 points

F - Reported very recently. It was in 06/07/2010 & the ASI was at 4547.18 points.

GROWTH - ? points

Movement of ASI as at 13/07/2010

Can we expect the same growth momentum reported by ASI during the past one & half years to continue in future as well?

The ASI movement as at end of 13/07/2010 was almost touching the 30 day moving average. In all the previous occasions once the ASI breaks the 30 day moving average it gave a start for a new bull run.

In the final scenario the bearish trend lasts only for 05 to 07 days maximum. Is this period sufficient for the next bull run?

The corporate results for the June quarter is about to released by the listed companies withing couple of weeks. Will these results generate the much needed boost for the market for the next bull run?

data - cdax