Friday, September 24, 2010

John Keells Tea Market Report: August tea production records increase

Sri Lanka's tea production in August has once again recorded an increase of 1.2 Mkgs (5 percent increase over the corresponding month of 2009). The production to end August has now risen to 221.2 Mkgs which is 39.3 Mkgs over and above the same period last year. If this trend were to continue in the balance months of the year, we could see an all time output surpassing the 318.7 Mkgs recorded in 2008. Interestingly to end August the difference is just a mere 1.7 Mkgs.

The expected increase in production could also see Sri Lanka's annual earnings from tea exports peaking at US $ 1.3 billion, which will be an all time record, according to Sri Lanka Tea Board sources.

Favourable weather conditions in most black tea producing countries in 2010 has helped to boost global tea supplies by 13 percent with the bulk of the increase of 76.62 Mkgs coming from Kenya, where production in the first seven months has peaked to 237.41 Mkgs. Kenya too is on course to record an all time high which will exceed 369.6 Mkgs recorded in 2007 by some distance. Already Kenya is ahead by 15.9 Mkgs compared to 2007.

Last week we witnessed liquoring BOPF advancing to unexpected levels, given the world supply situation in the current year and the price levels at other auction centres.

The expectation that this was possibly on account of the need to complete urgent orders in the Tea bag sector was confirmed, as the demand at this weeks auction was much weaker, and the overheated market took a significant correction.

The BOPs on the other hand received more widespread demand, and enjoyed price increases ranging from Rs 5 to Rs 20, specially due to limited availability. The gap in prices between the two grades widened sharply last week in favour of BOPF, which held an advantage of Rs 100 and sometimes much more. With the prices moving in the opposite direction this week, the gap narrowed considerably. It is possible that the BOPF could weaken a little more at the next auction, but the BOP market looks bullish.

Nuwara Eliya BOPFs declined Rs 40 and more with a number of invoices remaining unsold and the few BOPs on offer mostly maintaining. Uva's fluctuated in price following quality with price declines on average of Rs 40 to Rs 50 while a few colory teas declined only marginally. CTC's in general eased Rs 20 to Rs 30 with a large weight of Low Grown types remaining unsold for want of bids.

The 3.3 Mkg of Low Growns that were on offer this week met with good demand. In the Leaf category, BOP/OP1s continued the bullish trend with prices maintaining for the best on offer, whilst the below best appreciated a few rupees. Pekoes too maintained last week's levels.

The select best OPAs were mainly firm, however a few below best varieties advanced in value. In the small leaf category there was slightly less demand to previous weeks, with prices declining several rupees, although the levels are still quite satisfactory.

Production in the Low Grown planting districts have shown a decline, hence the lower offerings in the coming weeks.

There was excellent demand from Iran, Russia and Iraq, whilst Dubai, Jordon, Libya, Saudi Arabia and other
Middle Eastern countries also lent useful support.

Western teas

Select Best BOPs were firm to dearer, other Good invoices gained Rs 10, Below Best sorts advanced Rs 10 to Rs 15 on average, plainer varieties were Rs 10 dearer. Select Best Western BOPFs declined Rs 20 to Rs 30 as the sale progressed, other good invoices along with the Below Best and plainer varieties declined Rs 40 to Rs 50 and more as the sale progressed. Select Best Medium BOPs declined Rs 20 to Rs 30, others gained Rs 10 to Rs 15 on average. BOPFs shed Rs 15 to Rs 20 and more at times.

Nuwara Eliya teas

Brighter BOPs were firm, others gained Rs 10 to Rs 15. BOPFs declined Rs 20 to Rs 30 on average.

Uva teas
Bright Uva BOP/BOPFs declined substantially following quality, other BOPs gained Rs 15 to Rs 20 whilst the BOPFs shed Rs 10 to Rs 20 on average. Udapussellawa BOP/BOPFs declined Rs 10 to Rs 15 and more, whilst the BOPFs shed Rs 30 to Rs 40 on average with a fair volume remaining unsold.

CTC teas

A few Select Best Low Grown PF1s were firm following special inquiry, others declined Rs 20 to Rs 30 and more as the sale progressed with a fair volume remaining unsold. BP1s were firm to Rs 10 dearer. High and Medium PF1s shed Rs 20 to Rs 30 on average. BP1s declined Rs 10.
Low growns

Fair demand. Select Best OP1s were irregularly dearer by Rs 3 to Rs 5, Best along with the Below Best varieties were firm Rs 5 to Rs 10 dearer, poor types too gained by a similar margin. Select Best BOP1s eased Rs 10 to Rs 20, however the balance were irregularly dearer by Rs 5 to Rs 10. Select Best OPs appreciated Rs 10 to Rs 20 and more at times, Best types too were irregularly dearer by Rs 5 to Rs 10, Below Best and poor types were firm on last levels. Select Best OPAs shed Rs 5 to Rs 10, Best and Below Best types too were lower by a similar margin, poor stalky varieties declined sharply by Rs 10 to Rs 15.

Select Best Pekoe/Peko1s shed Rs 10 to Rs 15 and more following quality. Bold Pekoe varieties maintained last levels, poor flaky types tended low by Rs 3 to Rs 5. There was fair demand for the Tippy and Semi leafy Grades, however prices were lower to last. Select Best and Best BOP/BOP.SPs shed Rs 10 to Rs 15, Below Best types were firm, poorer sorts were lower by Rs 10.

Select Best and Best FBOP/FF1s were initially lower by Rs 10 to Rs 15 but declined further by Rs 20 to Rs 30 and at times more as the sale progressed, Below Best and poor sorts too followed by a similar trend. A few Select Best tippy invoices maintained last levels, however the balance and the best types declined in value, Below Best and poorer sorts too were lower to last.

Off grades

Select Best liquoring Fngs1s depreciated Rs 10 to Rs 20, whilst the Best and the Below Best were lower by Rs 10 to Rs 15, poorer sorts appreciated Rs 10 and more at times. All BPs were lower by Rs 10 to Rs 15. Select Best BMs depreciated Rs 10 to Rs 15, whilst the Best and the Below Best types were lower by Rs 10, poorer sorts depreciated Rs 10. All Low Grown Fngs appreciated Rs 10. Select Best BOP1As were firm on last levels, while the Best and Below Best shed Rs 10 to Rs 15 and more at times, poorer sorts too were lower by Rs 15 and more with very low demand.

Dust

Good demand. Select Best Dust1s gained Rs 10 to Rs 15, others in the Best and Below Best category advanced Rs 10 to Rs 20, while the poorer sorts were firm .

All secondary Dusts were firm. Best Low Grown Dust/Dust1s were firm, while the balance were irregularly lower.

source - www.dailynews.lk

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