YEAR END MARCH (LKR mn)
|
FY11
|
FY12
|
FY12E*
|
FY13E
|
Current Price (LKR)
| |||
Revenue
|
60,500
|
76,700
|
74,798
|
80,794
|
195
| |||
EBIT
|
11,425
|
12,167
|
14,127
|
13,519
|
FY13E Target Price (LKR)
| |||
Profit to Equity Holders
|
8,246
|
9,775
|
8,632
|
11,317
|
170
| |||
Recurring Profit
|
5,983
|
7,351
|
6,914
|
8,620
|
Recommendation
| |||
Recurring EPS (LKR)
|
7.1
|
8.7
|
8.2
|
10.2
|
HOLD
| |||
Recurring EPS Growth (%)
|
17.6
|
22.5
|
15.5
|
24.3
|
Date
| |||
Recurring PER (x)
|
33.7
|
23.6
|
23.7
|
19.1
|
25-May-12
| |||
Reported EPS
|
13.2
|
11.6
|
10.3
|
13.4
| ||||
Reported PER (x)
|
18.2
|
17.7
|
18.9
|
14.6
| ||||
CAL's revenue estimates for FY12E are in-line with JKH's actuals. We are revising our FY13E top-line by +LKR 900mn, resulting in a recurring EPS of LKR 10.2 (previous LKR 9.5). Top-line growth is attributed to the benefit of the LKR depreciation on the Leisure and Transport segments. Despite the positive revisions, higher COE's due to higher interest rates brings CAL's previous FY13E price target of LKR 206 down to LKR 170. The revision also takes into account the higher expenses related to increases in fuel and electricity costs (c.15% and c.10% respectively).
ANALYST VIEW: In the absence of significant positive news stemming from a casino JV or other major project, the current 15% premium may be warranted due to JKH's liquidity. Trading on a recurring PER of 19x on FY13E, the share is a hold for longer-term investors looking for an upside on concept value (+LKR 56 on FY13E price target; +c.29% from current price of LKR 197). HOLD
source - 
Research
Research
No comments:
Post a Comment