Monday, June 10, 2013

Weekly Foreign Holding and Block Trade Update


                                                      (click image to enlarge)

source - CAL Research

Corporate earnings encouraging: DNH

DNH Financial described corporate earnings released so far encouraging, with double digit growth in revenues though bottom lines have been under stress due to rising costs.



“With the release of 1Q2013 corporate results season coming to an end, it is encouraging to note that consolidated revenues are up by 11%YoY for companies that have reported results so far. While the majority has recorded double digit revenue growth, bottom line profits have however come under pressure on the back of rising production costs which has resulted in margin erosion for several heavyweight and middleweights,” DNH Financial said.

 This notwithstanding, several bellwether companies have surprised on the upside reporting robust earnings as a result of higher other income generation despite slower revenue growth.

 Focusing on the stock market, DNH said any significant investment exposure into Sri Lankan equities appears to have been restrained somewhat over the past two weeks due to global economic headwinds, decline in international equity markets and the lack of short-term opportunities.

“The majority of domestic investors appear to be waiting for either a short-term rally to participate in or a strong correction before entering the market. We believe that neither of these would eventuate and expect a gradual and healthy market re-rating over the medium to longer term,” it said.

 In the absence of any significant market catalyst, DNH expects the Bourse to trade largely range bound in the coming week.

 Corporate…

 “Given the fact that most investors would now agree that the potential for short-term trading opportunities are markedly limited, selecting medium to longer term investments would depend on a number of parameters, most importantly the strength of the top line and the sustainability of the bottom line,” DNH said.

“While we do not rule out the importance of earnings as a strong indicator of growth, it is highly important to determine the source of profits, whether a result of actual top line growth or an increase in other (finance) income or a dramatic cut in costs that could have a negative impact on productivity in the longer term. Consequently, we advise investors to focus on companies with a sustainable earnings model supported by firm top line growth and not overly relying on non-recurring income generation to support the bottom line,” it added.

“In balancing what we consider the compelling opportunities provided by the Sri Lanka Bourse, we see particular value in domestically-focused companies which should experience less earnings volatility against a relatively uncertain global backdrop. Among domestically-oriented stocks, we are buyers of selected counters in the consumer, industrial, diversified, banking and hotel sectors, which we believe are likely to attract investors who will appreciate their potential upside,” DNH said.

 Although the overall valuation of the market appears relatively high (nevertheless still attractive vis-à-vis a number of other emerging markets), DNH is advising investors to break away from the herd, maintain a healthy investment horizon and focus on companies that will deliver quality earnings in 2013/2014.

source - www.ft.lk

Sunday, June 9, 2013

Foreigners Uplift Bourse, Fall Has Bottomed Out

Different reasons were given by stockbrokers in regard to the vicissitudes of the stock market, where it has fallen week on week (WoW), despite ‘strong’ foreign buying on selected blue chip stocks.

One said it was due to alleged price manipulation of blue chip JKH by certain miscreants who had taken the price of this stock artificially up on the back of foreign interest and then had dumped it.
The share price of JKH on Thursday fell by Rs 6.20 to Rs 273.20 over its previous day’s close.

 The following day Friday it followed suit by falling by another Rs 5, a source alleged, while two other index heavy stocks, namely Tobacco and Caltex also fell.

“It is however not foreigners who are fooled by this price manipulation of JKH, but locals,” the source said. JKH is considered as the trendsetter in the market, he said. When it falls, then others follow suit, he said.

Another source however said that the fall of JKH was due to profit taking by retailers.

Penny Stocks

However, these alleged manipulators who previously played on penny stocks, have withdrawn their interest in second tier stocks at the present, a source said.

 Another attributed the fall in the bourse due to a correction. “I don’t think the bourse can fall by more than another 50 points,” he said on Thursday, after it (ASPI) fell by 50.46 points (0.79%) on that day, whilst falling by another 64.95 points (1.02%), according to CSE data, on Friday. It has now bottomed out, the source said.

 On the previous day Thursday, the fall was due to the drop in prices of certain index heavy stocks, which had also been the case in the past few days, whilst continuing in the same vein on Friday, he said.

 On Thursday, it was specifically due to the fall of index heavy JKH, CTC and Caltex, which was also the reason for its fall on Friday (June 7), the source said.

Storm In A Teacup

In the case of CTC, its Thursday’s depression was caused by the decline in the price of only a few shares, he said. Such is the weight that such stocks have on market indices, the source said.
There is however hardly any day trades taking place. Day trades don’t occur in a falling market, he said.

But foreign interest in the bourse is strong and visible, that’s the silver lining, the source said.
The bourse since the beginning of the year and up to Thursday (June 6) has seen a net foreign inflow of Rs 15.3 billion. Even on the following day Friday, foreign buying was visible, this time in Cargills and Commercial Bank, the source said. Friday’s foreign inflow figures were not immediately available.

And since the beginning of the year (i.e., from 31.12.12.) and up to Friday, the ASPI has grown by 11.8% to 6,307.43 points and the S&P SL 20 Index by 15.1% to 3,550.47 points, according to CSE data. Meanwhile shareholder wealth (market capitalization) since 31.12.12.and up to Friday has had grown by 11.7% to Rs 2,422.1 billion.

However, WoW and Up to Friday, the ASPI has fallen by 2.4% and the S&P SL 20 Index by 2.6%. Meanwhile, market capitalization (shareholder wealth) WoW has had fallen by 2.4%.

And from 23.5.13 (Friday, May 24 was a Vesak Poya holiday for the bourse) to Friday (June 7), the ASPI has had declined by 2.8% and the S&P SL 20 Index by 3.2%, while market capitalization in the review period has had fallen by 2.8%.

Foreign Funds

But foreign funds are yet looking at the bourse. They are bullish about the Sri Lankan market, the source said. They are looking at selected, index heavy blue chip stocks to make their investments, the source said. That’s what’s driving the market.

The play is on the blue chips, not on the penny stocks, he said.

Corruption is not an issue as far as foreign investors are concerned, corruption is a worldwide phenomenon, the source said. The low interest rate regime prevailing in First World economies is another reason for investment funds to seek after markets such as Sri Lanka, he said. Because of them the market is bullish.

The locals however have a different set of interest when they look at the market, the source further said. They look at the market vis-à-vis the returns they may get from the fixed income market, he said.

Local retailers are however out of the market, the source said. There is no interest in the market for penny stocks. Trading is not taking place.

“We however don’t see the momentum which was there in the market in the latter part of 2009 as well as in 2010 and 2011, which were then largely driven by penny stocks, the source said.

1Q Performance

While it’s true that the blue chips didn’t have a great first quarter (1Q) in the current year, it’s however too early to comment on their performance for the rest of the year, he said. Taking the 1Q performance and extrapolating it for the rest of the year is wrong, the source said.

But another source said that the recent hike in electricity rates was going to impinge upon corporate earnings. The source also said that declining gold prices were also going to hit banks, which have an exposure to the pawning market.

Recent foreign investments however have a focus on a couple of blue chip banks. On Thursday it also centred round Commercial Bank and HNB, he said.

But in the fixed income market, interest rates have had come down by a few 100 basis points, the source said. However, the question is whether the interest rates have had come down naturally or artificially, he said. If interest rates are kept artificially low it’s not sustainable, sooner or later the lid will come off, the source said.

The issue is whether inflation is really coming down, even the IMF has raised concerns over the same, the source said.

High inflation is a dampener for interest rates to come down, because the fixed income market, mainly dominated by banks will then try to offer higher interest rates with a premium over inflation in order to induce the investor in to the fixed income market. And a high interest rate environment is also a stumbling block to investments due to higher borrowing costs, similar to a commodity in the real economy becoming too expensive to the consumer, thereby impeding investments.

Further, a high inflationary regime hits the poor and the fixed income earner the hardest.

source - www.sundayleader.com

Friday, June 7, 2013

Sri Lankan bourse edges lower after cbank holds rates

COLOMBO, June 7 (Reuters) - Sri Lankan shares fell for a fifth straight session on Friday  to a three-week low, led by a decline in John Keells Holdings after the central bank held policy rates steady.

The central bank, before the market opened, kept the key policy rates steady after it unexpectedly cut them by 50 basis points month ago.

"For the market to continuously move up, there should be some news. Even keeping the rates steady does not help investors to get in," said a stockbroker who declined to be named.

The main stock index fell 1.02 percent, or 64.95 points, to 6,307.43, the lowest close since May 16.

However, foreign investors were net buyers of shares for a 21st straight session. The bourse saw a net foreign inflow of 291.6 million rupees ($2.31 million), extending the year-to-date inflows to 15.6 billion rupees.

Foreign investors accounted for around 46.47 percent of the day's turnover of 883.7 million rupees, less than this year's daily average of 1.04 billion rupees.

Shares in conglomerate John Keells Holdings fell 3.00 percent to 265.00 rupees, while leading mobile phone operator Dialog Axiata Plc lost 3.23 percent to 9.00 rupees.

The rupee ended weaker at 126.45/50 per dollar from Thursday's close of 126.30/40 on demand for greenbacks from importers, dealers said.

($1 = 126.4250 Sri Lanka rupees)  (Reporting by Ranga Sirilal and Shihar Aneez; Editing by Jijo
Jacob)

source - www.reuters.com

Sri Lanka Sunshine Holdings cuts plantations unit stake

June 7, 2013 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's Sunshine Holdings said it had sold a stake in its plantations unit to Pyramid Wilmar Plantations (Pvt) Ltd, for 910.3 million rupees.

The sale cut its stake in Estate Management Services (Pvt) Ltd to 33.15 percent from 51 percent by the sale of 5.59 million shares, the firm said in a stock exchange filing.

Estate Management Services (Pvt) Ltd is a joint venture with Tata Global Beverages Ltd of India.
It owns a 53.75 percent stake in Watawala Plantations Ltd, which produces tea, rubber and oil palm.
Pyramid Wilmar, a unit of the Singapore based firm is in the palm oil business.

source - www.lbo.lk

Foreign investors’ craving persists; net inflow tops Rs. 15 b mark

The craving for select Sri Lankan equities by discerning foreign investors persisted as the net inflow surpassed the Rs. 15 billion market yesterday, though profit taking by locals especially retailers with the Bourse up 15% last week remained a dampener.

 Heavy buying into Commercial Bank and HNB resulted in a net foreign inflow of Rs. 552 million yesterday, propelling the year-to-date figure to Rs. 15.2 billion. This healthy development is on top of a record Rs. 39 billion worth of net inflow last year. With the current inflows and that of last year, the Colombo Bourse has overtaken the net outflow experienced in 2010 and 2011 combined.

NDB Stockbrokers said the Banking, Finance and Insurance sector became the top contributor to the turnover (due to Hatton National Bank and Commercial Bank) and the sector index dipped 0.39%. The share price of Hatton National Bank increased by Rs. 1.20 (0.71%) to close at Rs. 170 with the counter’s foreign holding increasing by 2,063,399 shares. The share price of Commercial Bank decreased by 0.32% to close at 122.90 with the counter’s foreign holding increasing by 2,000,000 shares. “Despite starting on a positive note, market lost steam predominantly due to the fall in prices witnessed in index heavy counters John Keells Holdings and Ceylon Tobacco Company,” NDBS said.

 The ASI was down 50 points or 0.7% bringing the year-to-date gain lower to 13% from 15% on Friday and S&P SL 20 Index dipped by 39 points or 1%.

“The correction phase has set in with indices extending a steep downtrend,” Softlogic Stockbrokers said, adding that indices encountered a sharp dip as the Bourse moved on a volatile note.

 It said John Keells Holdings, Ceylon Tobacco Company and Kotmale Holdings also recorded one crossing each. The latter saw strong on-board participation whilst having touched a 52-week high at Rs. 58. (+25.0%).

“Key dividend players which saw considerable rallies recently encountered steep price dips today as Chevron Lubricants and Ceylon Tobacco weighed strongly negative on the ASPI dipping to Rs. 310 (-12.8%) and Rs. 960 (-4.0%) at their respective intra-day low prices. John Keells Holdings recorded a notable dip of 4.0% at its intra-day low of Rs. 268. Investor play was observed in Nations Trust Bank which dipped 0.3% to Rs. 66.5, leaving further opportunity to accumulate,” Softlogic said.
 Retailers remained cautious of the correction in the index, thereby focusing on a few selected counters. Nation Lanka Finance, Laugfs Gas and Tokyo Cement [Non-Voting] gathered significant interest.

source - www.ft.lk

Adam Investments buys 9% stake of Ceylon and Foreign Trades for Rs. 100 m

Dr. Ali Asger Shabbir Gulamhusein and his spouse Danushya Mediwake Wethasinghe Gulamhusein’s controlled entity Adam Investments yesterday purchased an 8.9% stake in Ceylon & Foreign Trades PLC via a private crossing on the CSE for Rs. 100 million.

 The block amounting to 12.5 million shares was done at Rs. 8 each, up from Rs. 7.10, CFT’s Wednesday’s closing price. The shares were sold by CFT Director Ali Asger Shabbir.

Adam Investments is also a leading investor in the Colombo stock market and its purchase of 9% stake in CFT is one of several strategic transactions initiated by Dr. Ali Asger Shabbir Gulamhusein and Danushya Mediwake Wethasinghe Gulamhusein.

 Adam Investments is a member of the Adam Group of Companies which is contemplating sharing its future success with the public through a proposed IPO. The details of the public offer are being discussed with the financial advisors and regulators at present. CFT, the flagship company has a subsidiary which is a freight forwarding company and an associate company which is a public quoted company, On’ally Holdings PLC popularly known as Unity Plaza.

 Dr. Gulamhusein serves as Chairman of the board of Adam Investments Ltd. He holds a PhD from Tokyo, Japan and a Degree from King’s College London, UK. He has been bestowed with the prestigious title of “Deshabandhu Manawahithawadhi Lankaputhra” and also serves as advisor to the Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Co-operatives and Internal Trade and as a Justice of Peace (all island). Danushya Gulamhusein is the great-granddaughter of Sir William Gopallawa, Sri Lanka’s first President and last Governor General. Wethasinghe Gulamhusein has served as an Executive Director of Adam Investments from the inception of the company. She holds a degree in Psychology and Business Management (UK) and also serves as an advisor to the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Co-operatives and Internal Trade.

 Adam Investments Ltd. was incorporated in 2011, to focus on key growth industries that play a pivotal role in the country’s economy. The companies that function under Adam Investments are;

Adam Apparels Ltd., a premier manufacturer and exporter of garments for leading global fashion labels. For three decades this company has contributed to the largest export earning industry in the island, which despite local and international challenges, has continued to grow steadily year-on-year.

  Adam Metals Ltd. which is one of the oldest manufacturers of metal hardware items in the island is expertly positioned today to take advantage of the rapidly booming construction and infrastructure development projects in the island.

 Network Communications Ltd. is the group’s IT / Electronics arm. With the rapid urbanisation of the island and the government’s systematic drive to push the ICT industry forward, Network Communications shows a very promising future as a key player in a growing ICT industry in future Sri Lanka.

 The group recently inaugurated two new companies, namely Adam Automobiles (Pvt) Ltd. and Adam Air Conditioners Ltd. In 2011/2012, Sri Lanka saw its largest ever volume of vehicle imports.

 Thus, Adam Automobiles Ltd. was conceived with the aim to provide spare parts and services to cater to the rapidly increasing demand for these items. 2012 saw a drop in importation of consumer electronics except for three items, which were, TVs, mobile phones and air conditioners. Since the group is already engaged in the importation of TVs and mobile phones through Network Communications (Pvt) Ltd., Adam Air Conditioners Ltd. was inaugurated to tap the growing demand for air conditioning systems in the country and the company has already placed purchase orders and opened L/Cs to import air conditioners from China.  Ceylon & Foreign Trades PLC goes back to 1949; one year after the country gained independence from British rule, when a group of pioneering businessmen banded together to form this company. The company, which began operations by exporting traditional Ceylonese commodities gradually, expanded and consolidated its status as an import/export house of repute.  A major development following increasing activity of the company was the broad basing of its ownership and it assumed the status of a Public Limited Liability Company in 1978. The company’s major exports were tea, rubber and coconut during the first and second phases of its operations, which were also the major export products of the country.

 During the last one and half decades, the CFT group diversified its operations to enter the field of spice and desiccated coconut exports. The export trade forms the backbone of the country’s economy and it is with justifiable pride that CFT could claim to be a stakeholder in the task of earning vital foreign exchange to the country for decades. An important facet of CFT’s operations have not merely enabled it to gain a degree of domestic fame for its stability and reliability but also to establish itself as an export house of repute among overseas buyers on the basis of its honourable conduct in fulfilling its contractual obligations to its buyers in various parts of the world.

source - www.ft.lk

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Sri Lanka stocks close down 0.8-pct

June 06, 2013 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's stocks closed down 0.79 percent on Thursday with the for a fourth consecutive day due to profit taking by investors and losses in heavy index companies, brokers said.

The benchmark Colombo All Share Index closed 50.46 points lower at 6,372.38 and the S&P SL 20 Index closed 53.49 points lower at 3,581.56 down 1.47 percent.

Turnover was 1.3 billion rupees up from 818 million day earlier.

Foreigners brought 744 million rupees worth shares while selling 191 million rupees of shares, in a day that 59 stocks advanced and 137 stocks declined.

The Lion Brewery contributed most to the index gain closing at 405.00 rupees up 13.70 rupees, Ceylinco Insurance closed at 1,039.00 rupees up 39.00 rupees and Commercial Leasing and Finance gained 10 cents to close at 04.20 rupees.

Kotmale Holdings was the top gainer Thursday gaining 7.30 rupee to close at 53.50 rupees, helped by a crossing of 500,000 shares at 55 rupees per share. Brokers speculate that Cargills, the parent of Kotmale is trying to increase its stake.

Cargills closed at 180.60 rupees down 3.40 rupees.

The main crossing were recorded by Ceylon & Foreign, a crossing of 12.5 million shares at 8 rupees per share to close at 7.30 rupees up 20 cents.

Asian markets sank Thursday following a sell-off on Wall Street, where dealers were spooked by disappointing US jobs data. The dollar rose slightly after shedding around one percent against the yen in New York.

Tokyo fell 0.85 percent, or 110.85 points, to 12,904.02, extending an almost four percent decline on Wednesday while Hong Kong lost 1.05 percent, or 230.81 points, to close at 21,838.43. Shanghai was down 1.27 percent, or 28.82 points, at 2,242.11.

Commercial Bank of Ceylon closed at 122.90 rupees down 40 cents with a crossing of two million shares at 123.50 rupees per share, Hatton National Bank too had a crossing of two million shares at 169.50 rupees per share and closed at 169.30 rupees up 50 cents.

DFCC Bank closed at 142.80 rupees up 1.10 rupees and National Development Bank closed at 172.80 rupees, down 80 cents.

Pan Asia closed at 20.40 rupees down 10 cents. Union Bank of Colombo closed at 19.10 rupees down 10 cents and Sampath Bank lost 60 cents to close at 219.30 rupees.

LB Finance closed at 132.50 rupees down 1.40 rupees and Peoples Leasing and Finance closed at 15.00 rupees up 10 cents.

Distilleries Company lost 3.00 rupees to close at 196.90 rupees and Ceylon Tobacco Company too lost 24.60 rupees to close at 975.00 rupees.

John Keells Holdings lost 6.20 rupees to close at 273.20 rupees and Nestle Lanka closed at 1,980.10 rupees down 3.30 rupees.

Aitken Spence closed at 134.50 down 40 cents. Browns Investments closed flat at 03.30 rupees.
Softlogic Holding closed at 11.10 rupees down 20 cents and Vallibel One closed at 19.10 rupees down 10 cents.

Sri Lanka Telecom closed at 42.00 rupees down 30 cents and Dialog Axiata closed flat at 09.30 rupees. (Ends)

source - www.lbo.lk

Weekly averages ease across the board for first time in three weeks

All three weighted averages (WAvg) dipped across the board for the first time in three weeks at yesterday’s Treasury bill auction with the 182-day bill WAvg reflecting the sharpest decline of 9 basis points (bp) to 9.81%.

Wealth Trust Securities said the 91-day WAvg dipped by 3 bp to 8.70%, while the 364-day reflected a drop of 1 bp to 10.85%. Once again, the 364-day maturity dominated the auction as it represented 82.5% of the total accepted amount of Rs. 24.6 billion, which was Rs. 11.6 billion higher than the initialled offered amount of Rs. 13 billion. In secondary bond markets, activity continued to remain high yesterday mainly surrounding the two liquid five year maturities (i.e.1.4.2018 and 15.8.2018) once again. Yields dipped in morning hours of trading to intraday lows of 11.06% and 11.11% respectively before closing the day mostly unchanged at levels of 11.08/10 and 11.13/14 in comparison its previous days closings. In addition, the 364 day bill was quoted at 10.80/86 in secondary markets as well.  Surplus liquidity in money market dipped marginally to Rs. 19.3 billion yesterday as overnight call money and repo rates averaged 8.53% and 8.25% respectively. Central Bank continued to refrain from conducting any Open Market Operations (OMO) for a 14th consecutive day.

However, it announced its plans to mop up an amount of Rs. 6 billion by way of a seven day Repo auction to be conducted today with settlement for Friday, 7 June.

 Rupee gains marginally for a second consecutive day

 In dollar/rupee markets, the rupee gained marginally for a second consecutive day to close the day at Rs. 126.40/45 against its opening level of Rs. 126.50 on the back of export conversions. The total USD/LKR volume for the previous day (4 June) stood at US$ 45.57 million.
source - www.ft.lk

Profit taking pushed indices down

The Colombo bourse yesterday lost ground for the third consecutive day with turnover down to Rs.818.4 million from the previous day’s Rs.1.03 billion with the All Share Price Index losing 26.82 points (0.42%) and S&P SL20 10.85 points (0.30%) with 92 gainers outpaced by 128 losers while 91 counters closed flat.

"Profit taking had something to do with the indices moving down," a broker said. "It was basically a very quiet day with a block trade in Chevron contributing Rs.225 million to turnover."

This was the biggest transaction of the day with 0.6 million Chevron crossed at Rs.375 with a further 139,651 shares traded on the floor between Rs.354.20 and Rs.375. The counter closed Rs.10.90 down at Rs.355.70 on the floor contributing Rs.50.9 million to turnover.

"The ASPI ended lower for a third consecutive day amid a drop in activity levels dominated by trades on LLUB which accounted for over 30% of market turnover. The market also saw crossings on DIAL and CTC," John Keells Stock Brokers said.

There was a net foreign inflow of Rs. 314.22 with purchases of Rs. 432.33 million and sales of Rs. 118.12 million.

JKH edged down to Rs.279.90 on nearly 0.2 million shares traded between Rs.278.50 and Rs.281.50, Rs.1.80 below the previous close.

Other block trades included Dialog where slightly over 4.7 million shares were done at Rs.9.30 contributing Rs.43.8 million to turnover and a 34,884 shares Ceylon Tobacco done at Rs.1,000 contributing Rs.34.9 million to turnover.

Brokers said that foreign buying was seen in Ceylon Tobacco and Commercial Bank with Ceylon Tobacco also seeing 18,603 shares done on the floor between Rs.981 and Rs.1,000 closing 10 cents up at Rs.999.60 generating a turnover of Rs.18.6 million.

Commercial Bank (voting) closed 60 cents down at Rs123.40 on over 0.3 million shares done between Rs.122.50 and Rs.124.50 generating a turnover of Rs.42.5 million.

Haycarb gained Rs.10.20 to close at Rs.211.70 on over 0.1 million shares done between Rs.205 and Rs.215 contributing Rs.25.8 million to turnover while Tokyo (voting) closed Rs.1.10 up at Rs.27.10 on nearly 1.3 million shares traded between Rs.26 and Rs.27.30 contributing Rs.23.3 million to turnover.

Piramal Glass closed flat at Rs.6.70 trading between Rs.6.70 and Rs.6.80 with 2.4 million shares transacted.

source - www.island.lk