Rubber surged to more than 500 yen a kilogram for the first time as signs the global economy is improving boosted speculation demand will keep expanding for the commodity as weather disruptions constrain supplies. The cash price in Thailand also surged to a record.
The July-delivery contract climbed as much as 2.9 percent to a record 504 yen a kilogram ($6,178 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange before settling at 502.9 yen. The most-active contract surged 7.2 percent this week, the largest advance in 13 weeks.
Asian stocks climbed for a fourth day before a report that economists said will show U.S. employers added the most jobs in January in three months. Asian companies including Samsung Electronics Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. boosted earnings last quarter as economic growth in the U.S. and China spurred consumers to buy more electronics and cars.
“Optimism about global economic growth spurred investors to buy industrial commodities,” Kazuhiko Saito, an analyst at Tokyo-based broker Fujitomi Co., said today by phone. “Rubber also advanced on speculation that Chinese buyers may step up purchases after the New Year holiday.”
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of U.S. non- manufacturing businesses released yesterday showed service industries expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2005, indicating the economic recovery is broadening.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls climbed by 146,000 in January after climbing by 103,000 the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey before today’s Labor Department report. The jobless rate rose to 9.5 percent from 9.4 percent, a separate survey showed.
Recovery Signs
“The U.S. economy is picking up and starting to show some pretty consistent signs of recovery, which could spill over to jobs,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney.
Rubber futures have gained 21 percent this year, extending last year’s 50 percent rally. Supplies from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the top growers representing 70 percent of global supply, were curbed by rain while rising car sales led by China and India improved demand.
“Concerns over worsening supply shortage still boost the sentiment as demand remains robust, while supply may demand further as rubber trees are entering leave-shedding season, lowering output,” Sureerat Kunthongjun, an analyst at AGROW Enterprise Ltd., said by phone from Bangkok.
La Nina, which started in June and usually lasts for nine months or more, has led to higher-than-average rainfall in most parts of Southeast Asia. The weather event is having a “major impact” on rubber and palm oil production in Malaysia, as heavier rainfall may hamper harvesting and tapping, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department.
The physical price of natural rubber in Thailand advanced to a record 184.05 baht ($5.96) a kilogram today as investors are concerned over the supply situation in Thailand and Malaysia ahead of the annual low-production period, the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand said. Robust car sales in the U.S. supported prices, it said.
U.S. Car Sales
U.S. sales of cars and light trucks rose 17.3 percent from a year earlier to 817,098 in January, according to data provided by Ward’s Information Products.
The Shanghai market will be closed until Feb. 8 for Lunar New Year holidays. May-delivery rubber in Shanghai climbed to a record 41,850 yuan ($6,350) a ton on Jan. 31.
Natural-rubber consumption in China may rise 9 percent to 3.6 million tons this year and India’s consumption may gain 5.2 percent to 991,000 tons, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
China’s natural-rubber inventories rose for the first week in four, adding 126 tons to 58,673 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said Feb. 1. That was a 61 percent drop from last year’s peak of 151,832 tons.
Car-sales growth in China will be around 10 to 15 percent this year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Jan. 10. Total auto sales, which include cars, trucks and buses, jumped 32 percent last year to 18.06 million, the association said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Aya Takada in Tokyo at atakada2@bloomberg.net Supunnabul Suwannakij in Bangkok at ssuwannakij@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Matthew Oakley at moakley@bloomberg.net
source - www.bloomberg.com
photo credit - www.rubberdev.gov.lk
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